A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
