Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
